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Real Estate Blog
Monday, January 17 2011
Posted by: Michael Ardolino AT 12:44 pm   |  Permalink   |  5 Comments  |  Email
Friday, January 14 2011

The Would-Have-Been Great Parade

An open letter to the Three Village community:

Thanks to your generous, enthusiastic support, this year's Three Village Holiday Parade would have been the best ever had the weather not forced its cancellation.

This would have been the 16th annual holiday parade. All five of our Three Village elementary schools had floats ready to go. So did both junior highs and the high school which not only had a float but the school's wonderful jazz band ready to perform. Wolfie and the 160-piece Stony Brook University Marching Band were ready to kick off the parade. The Setauket Fire Department was set to unveil its new Santa float. Dozens of local businesses and organizations were ready to march.

The Three Village Chamber of Commerce was pleased to be the lead sponsor of the parade. On behalf of all the sponsors, many thanks to everyone. Let's hope this year's preparations can be the basis for a wonderful parade next December. Here's wishing you and yours the best of new years, with hope for good weather for this coming December's Parade.

Michael Ardolino, President

Three Village Chamber of Commerce

Posted by: Michael Ardolino AT 10:16 am   |  Permalink   |  0 Comments  |  Email
Friday, January 14 2011

'Real' Real Estate Market

While I agree with some of what was said about the real estate market ("3V better off than most but are prices leveling?" Jan. 6), there are a few points I would like to add.

I realize that the audience was most likely present area homeowners and perhaps a few home sellers or those contemplating selling. In my view the seller's predicament was seriously understated and the buyer's position was misstated at best.

The starting point of a successful real estate transaction is the listing of the property. Too many of us know a realtor friend with whom we list our property without much comparison shopping. Comparison shopping affords several realtors the opportunity to make a compelling case for effectively marketing the property. In this type of real estate market the seller is well advised to shop and ask the realtor to provide more than a comparison of the seller's property with similar properties that recently sold.

Real estate is largely driven by supply and demand. For a seller, in today's market, the number of local foreclosures is important, but a more important focus is the overhang of potential foreclosures in the market. With a national unemployment figure at nearly 10 percent, how many local homeowners are more than three months behind on mortgage payments? The banks are not motivated to proceed with foreclosures because they know that the effect of that action will be devastating to many local economies. These potential foreclosures, involving homeowners who need to sale and who might flood the market in the spring, could dramatically increase the supply or inventory of houses for sale. This will create more downward pressure on prices in an already buyer's market.

Without a buyer and seller, there is no transaction. There is a large pool of buyers waiting on the sidelines for prices to bottom out. The recent rise in mortgage interest rates has prompted many of them to become more active in the market. While sellers concentrate on price, buyers concentrate on cost. The monthly cost to a buyer for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage is about equal at 5.75 percent for a $360,000 loan compared to a 4.75 percent rate on a $400,000 loan. As buyers realize the effect of the low but rising interest rates, they can offset a lot of price/inventory pressure in the market.

So where are we? There is pent-up demand, oversupply in the market and rising interest rates. Houses will be sold, houses will be bought. Sellers need to make sure their house is effectively priced versus the six others like it in the market.

Tom Belleau

Licensed Sales Agent

RealtyConnectUSA

Posted by: Michael Ardolino AT 10:14 am   |  Permalink   |  0 Comments  |  Email
Wednesday, January 12 2011

Interesting Information.....what do you think!

We believe that things are usually as they seem. We are not the type of organization that believes in conspiracies. However, there is something interesting in some of the housing price studies we are seeing in our research. It seems that some of the groups making the predictions are the same ones that have the greatest power to affect the prices they are projecting.

Most housing analysts warn that the heaviest downward pressure on prices will be created by distressed properties and the speed at which they will be released to the market. Research shows that ‘short sales’ sell at a 20% discount and foreclosures sell at a whopping 40% discount. Obviously, when and how much discounted real estate enters the market will have a major impact on prices of surrounding properties.

Back to our research

We are now seeing that a certain segment of those projecting future pricing have two things in common:

  1. They believe prices will fall rather dramatically in the first half of 2011
  2. They have control of the flow of discounted properties to the market

Predictions for the first half of 2011 by firms that fall in the above category:

  • Bank of America projects that prices will fall 3.7%
  • Fannie Mae predicts that median prices will drop $12,500
  • Wells Fargo reported that they feel home prices will drop 8%

Not a coincidence

We are beginning to realize this is not a coincidence. The organizations which should best know when the surge of foreclosures will be released are saying house prices will be hit the hardest in the first half of the year. We are not asserting that there is anything devious in what we have found. We are just reporting that those who have control over the flow of distressed properties must think/know that inventory is about to be released. Why else would so many of them be predicting a sharp decline in home values in the next 120 days?

Bottom Line

If you currently have your house on the market and are hoping that you will see a better price after the snow melts or the temperature warms up (aka Spring), BE CAREFUL! Those in the know are warning you the best price might be attained TODAY!

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Posted by: Michael Ardolino AT 08:48 pm   |  Permalink   |  Email

 

Michael Ardolino
Team Ardolino/Realty Connect USA
764 Route 25A
Setauket, NY 11733
Office: 631-941-4300
Direct: 631-941-6262
Fax: 631-675-1857
Email:
Michael@Ardolino.com 

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